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Chapter 25.
 Finish Line
 Reconnecting the dots

News Items     Visualizing a post-Global Warming world.
 

Part  1: 

The Gateway to the End of Global Warming
 

When compared with coal, the scope of replacing ALL of our pumped fossil oil with carbon-neutral biogenic oil made using nuclear processing heat is significantly smaller than the scope of today's coal handling.

Rolling Global Warming Back to Zero
 Stationary coal and natural gas boilers are going to be easy pickings for Hyperion type nukes.  Oil's production facilities are the stationary part of vehicles.

Setback: Due to competing CO2 absorption sinks, a reasonable atmospheric reduction expectation is 55% of the emitter's CO2 total  reduction. 

FIRST TRY: The 75/75 Plan.  In this web site's paradigm, 75% of coal and 75% natural gas burning has been ended by replacement with nuclear heat (rather than trying to do without whatever benefits the heat was providing) while leaving oil burning and deforestation unrestricted.   We want green to stay large, red and blue to become as small as possible.  (Annual CO2 in billion metric tonnes.)  ("Sources and Sinks" are from Chapter 6.)   IPCC's take:   CO2 Decay If Emissions are Reduced .pdf 

 

 

Beyond 75/75:

An additional biological opportunity would be maintaining the size of the green "land plants" CO2 sink.  If its size could be maintained at 11.0 by adding an additional 4.5 billion metric tons of biogenic sequestration every year, an additional 2 billion metric tonnes might be kept from the air and 1.4 from the oceans. 

This is not an expensive nor unreasonable strategy but does not address CO2 from Oil.

 

 

The best way to promote maximum plant growth would be heavy clear cutting and replanting of large mature forests with all the harvested wood chipped and sequestered by burial in a Western desert national sequestration landfill or deep sea "sea-questration".     Ocean Sequestration of Crop Residue .pdf      http://www.greenspirit.com/trees_answer.cfm   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_sink 

"Pine plantations in the Southeast can accumulate almost 100 metric tons of carbon [or 366 metric tons of CO2] per acre after 90 years, or roughly one metric ton of carbon per acre per year [or 3.66 metric tons of CO2 per acre per year] (Birdsey 1996)."  http://www.epa.gov/sequestration/faq.html#4  

4.5 billion metric tonnes of CO2 per year divided by 3.66 metric tonnes of CO2 per year per acre of Southeastern Pine trees is 1.3 billion acres.  But, remember, this is for the ENTIRE world.

What can the United States be reasonably expected to contribute?  We make about 1/4 of all the world's CO2 emissions.  Can we make a 1/4 or 350 million acre contribution?

"The United States has a total land area of nearly 2.3 billion acres. Major uses in 2002 were forest-use land, 651 million acres (28.8 percent); grassland pasture and range land, 587 million acres (25.9 percent); cropland, 442 million acres (19.5 percent); special uses (primarily parks and wildlife areas), 297 million acres (13.1 percent); miscellaneous other uses, 228 million acres (10.1 percent); and urban land, 60 million acres (2.6 percent)." From:  http://www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/EIB14/ 

We've shown how we would benefit greatly from knocking down coal and natural gas. 

 

Is it going to work out as above?  Probably not exactly, but this does give us a set of tools we can afford, know will work quickly, and not depend on lifestyle changes.

http://www.nobodysfuel.com/   H. Douglas Lightfoot  "Energy supply is more important than Climate Change."

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What happens when you roll back more than 100% of Global Warming?

About "Absorption Adjustment".

Likely effect of coal and natural gas CO2 mitigation on atmospheric CO2 accumulation.  CO2 reductions proportionately distributed.

 

(Right) Hansen (pp. 120) pointed out that, over the last 50 years, 46% of fossil fuel carbon dioxide has disappeared into "sinks" i.e., oceans and forests.  The constant percentage is remarkable since fossil fuel emissions have quadrupled over this same time period.

 

It is possible and practical to replace 75% of coal and natural gas combustion in large stationary boilers with nuclear.

Oil has 40% more energy per pound than coal, so it will remain virtually irreplaceable at the individual user level.  On the other hand, about 5% of oil is sequestered in plastics and paving by man.

 

 

 

 

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Visualizing a post-Global Warming world.

News Items:

DOE Official Predicts 100 Million Electric Cars By 2030.
The Irish Times (7/9, McDonald) reports, "Up to 100 million cars on American roads will be electrically-powered or hybrid-electric vehicles by 2030," said "the US under secretary for energy, Dr Kristina Johnson, herself a 'third-generation engineer.'" Speaking in Dublin Thursday at the Institute for International and European Affairs, Johnson "said this would be one of the measurable outcomes of President Barack Obama's drive to create a 'new clean energy economy.'" Over the next decade, she said, "we need to utilise all the technologies that can be developed," a strategy that "would involve switching to nuclear, hydro...wind and geothermal power." Commenting on other technologies, Johnson said that carbon capture and storage (CCS) "was 'just being demonstrated' and it could take three generations to perfect it," while "solar energy...had already reached 'seventh generation' in its development and the key issue now was to 'drive down costs.'"
 

Advent OF Electric Cars Could Add To Drain On Power Grid.
The New York Times (7/9, Motavalli) "Wheels" blog reports on the potential strain to the electric grid during peak summer months if widespread use of electric cars was added into the equation. "The consumption from a charging E.V. can cause a home's load to double, so it's worth considering the potential for electric cars to cause brownouts when more of the cars are eventually on the streets. Also, because E.V.'s are relatively expensive, their ownership is likely to be concentrated in more affluent areas, which means some neighborhoods could feel the power strain more than others." Experts say that public utilities that anticipate the added usage and increase capacity will be crucial to avoiding strain on the system.