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This is how We Could End Global Warming In 5 Years   The data  

Introduction   TIMING IS EVERYTHING - CO2 from our time's fuel - such as wood - is O.K.,  Fossil fuel's CO2 - too much, too fast - is coming from another time.

In the Jurassic Period, about 150 million years ago, biomass - dead plants - sank to the bottom of the oceans and, because the oceans were dead (anoxic, or no oxygen), the biomass did not rot but instead, over a very long period of time, turned into coal, oil, and natural gas - the fossil fuels.  When you burn a fossil fuel, you are making zombie fire.  It's fire from long-dead biomass producing CO2 in our time from another time - so very long ago it's almost as if fossil fuel came from another planet.  This is ancient CO2 being one-way ADDED to our time's air, not carbon being removed from our air and then soon returned - recycled - as happens, for example, when we burn wood.

Excessive CO2 accumulating from our massive burning of fossil fuels is causing our atmosphere to devolve in fast-reverse, some say 14,000 times as fast as it evolved.  Ironically, we are headed for another Jurassic period.  Back then, the temperature was 5.4°F warmer, CO2 = 1,950 ppm, oceans anoxic or "dead" from excess CO2, atmospheric oxygen 130% of today's.  It was the time of coal and oil's formation, when dinosaurs and dog-sized insects roamed almost endless steaming-hot jungles of huge trees. 

Burning our time's biomass is burning carbon that was recently removed from our atmosphere and burning returns it to our atmosphere.  This process is considered "Carbon Neutral."  One third of the world - 2 billion people - cook and heat using biomass heat - usually buffalo "chips" or wood.    Carbon    Carbon dioxide 

Data Sources   How much ancient CO2 are we adding to our atmosphere and where is it coming from?

Where did I get the numbers in the following graph?  From the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change or IPCC [ http://www.ipcc.ch/ ].  They are the folks charged with figuring out Global Warming and it's result, Climate Change.  Also from The United States National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration or NOAA  [ http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ ].  They are the main group who's monitoring the atmosphere.  In addition to them, an organization called Carbon Monitoring for Action or CARMA [ http://carma.org/ ], a power plant watchdog organization, have power plant CO2 data.  All numbers in the diagram below are in billions of tons per year.  I think all the major CO2 players are here.  Please bear in mind about 15 different gasses, most trace, are involved in Global Warming.

IPCC's CO2 source: Coal: 11.7; Oil: 11.2; Natural Gas: 5.8. IPCC 2004 .pdf  Based on the NOAA data, the author assigns 3.9 to "Other fuels;" and 4.1 to Non-Carbon Neutral Nature (volcanoes, etc.) 

Rot and forest fires come from organic matter (biomass) and are considered "Carbon Neutral" but I'm not 100% comfortable with this.  Forest fires are not too large but rot should be huge.  Are NOAA's "Oceans" and "Land Plants" also removing rot CO2 on the side?  I'm not comfortable with this either but haven't been able to pin down a solid "Nature CO2" number.   Help?

NOAA's CO2 Added: Fossil Fuel Burning: 32.6; Deforestation: 4.1.  CO2 Removed: Absorbed by Oceans: 12.2; Consumed by Plants: 8.2.

CARMA says fossil fuel power plants (mostly coal) add 11.0.

The Data In Graphic Form

Looking at a year's worth of CO2 coming and going, annual excess CO2, and Global Warming's 'OFF' Switch:

A simple diagram of the entire global CO2 situation:  The diagram to the right shows the world's total atmospheric CO2 flow for a recent year. 
1. The end-to-end red up arrows on the left show different CO2 sources adding their CO2 to the atmosphere for an annual total of 36.7 billion tons of CO2. 
2. The downward green arrows show how much CO2 land plants and oceans were able to remove from the atmosphere during that same year. 
3. The single red up arrow shows how much excess CO2 is left over in the atmosphere every year and is added to the approximately 800 BILLION tons of excess CO2 already accumulated since about World War II. 
           That's almost a TRILLION tons of additional CO2 buildup, folks!

Your body needs the right balance of many trace chemicals to be healthy.  Like your body, our living planet is a complex system, using a little CO2 to capture a little of the sun's heat.

CO2 needs to be a TRACE gas in the atmosphere at around 300 ppm (parts per million) to keep the world's temperature normal.  As long as the world's annual production of CO2 is less than 20 billion tons per year, nature is able to keep CO2 in the 300 ppm range by slightly increasing or decreasing CO2 levels through plant growth and water respiration. 

Man's extremely rapid and persistent addition of massive amounts of excess CO2 is overwhelming nature and thus overheating our planet.  (14,000 times faster CO2 than nature according to Richard Zeebe in the journal "Nature Geoscience.")  We have already pushed CO2 to about 387 ppm.  James Hansen suggests 350 as max.  Most climate experts are saying all hell will break loose before 450 ppm is reached.

(Left red up arrows: IPCC - Global Energy Flows 2004 IPCC 2004 .pdf ; Blue Fossil Fuel Power Plants arrow:   CARMA's Data ; Deforestation, other arrows: NOAA - Carbon Tracker NOAA's Data;  Diagram by Marilyn Holm.)   (Divide CO2 by 3.7 to find Carbon.)

The above graph depicts the general amounts and flows of non-carbon-neutral CO2 in the earth's atmosphere.  The following cross-check verifies the accumulation of that CO2 and the overall accuracy of what the graph is portraying.  It clearly indicates the quickest and least disruptive CO2 mitigation actions available to us.

CROSS-CHECK:

A cross-check on the 16.3 billion tons of CO2 "typical annual" CO2 accumulation number used in the graph above is provided by ORNL data and Wikipedia's "annual CO2 change" scatter-plot graph at right.  Carbon dioxide 

THE DATA SOURCE: "Q. In terms of mass, how much carbon does 1 part per million by volume of atmospheric CO₂ represent?   A. Using 5.137 x 10¹⁸ kg as the mass of the atmosphere (Trenberth, 1981 JGR 86:5238-46), 1 ppmv of CO₂= 2.13 Gt [billion tons] of carbon." ( http://cdiac.ornl.gov/pns/faq.html  Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge Nat. Labs.)

THE CHECK: A typical year is about 2 ppm.  2 x 2.13 billion [giga] tons carbon = 4.26 billion tons carbon.  Converting 4.26 billion tons of carbon to carbon dioxide: 4.26 x 44/12 = 15.7 billion tons CO2.     --- Jim Holm, August 11, 2008

15.7 (cross-check) to 16.3 (graph, above) --  When you arrive at the same answer by two completely different methods never using the same data twice - it's an answer well worth considering.

Global Warming is a very subtle phenomenon.  The anti-Global Warming folks need to come to understand that it is about 1 part in a million concentrations.

There is an excellent chance these simple calculations identify mankind's best, and perhaps only, opportunity to halt the gathering storm of Climate Change.

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Review   Adding the CO2 numbers up.

By the Numbers

 ● to NOAA's CO2 Data That Reveals This Opportunity    ● to CARMA's Power Plant CO2 Data   IPCC's

Ending Global Warming Fast: NOAA and CARMA Numbers  This is a difficult concept the first time you encounter it.  To help keep things organized, I've color-coded "bad" red, "good" green, "what we can do" blue.  (From data (1)  and (2), detailed below.)

1. CO2 emissions added to the atmosphere each year: +36.7   Billion Tons of CO2;  Net annual CO2 Surplus:                  36.7  Billion Tons of CO2

2. CO2 the Oceans and Biosphere remove each year:    -20.4   Billion Tons of CO2;  Net annual remaining CO2 Surplus:   16.3  Billion Tons of CO2

3. Converting Fossil power plants to Nuclear ends:       - 11.0   Billion Tons of CO2;  Net annual remaining CO2 Surplus:     5.3  Billion Tons of CO2

4. Ending Tropical Rainforest Deforestation ends:           - 4.1   Billion Tons of CO2;  Net annual remaining CO2 Surplus:     1.2  Billion Tons of CO2

It really is possible to END GLOBAL WARMING without disrupting everything.

It's that simple.  Check my numbers below.  The Starting Point: A simple calculation shows fossil fuel power plants are making at least 68% of the accumulating Global Warming CO2 surplus.

The oceans and biosphere are removing 55% (20.4 billion tons) of all the CO2 (36.7 billion tons) man and nature is making each year.  Global Warming comes from the remaining 45% (16.3 billion tons) CO2 surplus. 

Think obesity: Man is causing the planet to put on 16.3 billion extra tons of CO2 in the atmosphere each year and it's destroying the planet's health.

An inconvenient fact: Power plants are 68% of the CO2 accumulation problem.  We also need to persuade some Second and Third world countries to end their deforestation - which is another 25% of the accumulating Global Warming CO2 surplus.   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deforestation     

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Where the NOAA and CARMA data came from

Data Sources In Greater Detail - Extracting and converting NOAA's scientifically more correct "Grams Carbon" into "CO2 Grams."

NOAA and CARMA: Their CO2 Data Revealed The Opportunity.

The United States National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)  [ http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ ] has been keeping track of the world's atmospheric CO2 levels at their Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii since 1958.  (The thinking is that the middle of the Pacific gives a good world average.  I wonder about the influence of India and China.)  There have been sporadic measurements since the 1800s combined with recent ice core and other archeological measurements to provide historical perspective  .

[ Note: Since we are talking about atmospheric CO2, produced largely by combustion, NOAA makes it confusing when they publish their data in mole fraction carbon instead of CO2.  This is NOAA's explanation:  http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/carbontracker/glossary.html#gl_molefrac   This is not a trivial complaint since the IPCC publishes in Mtyr, or "millions of Metric tonnes of CO2 per year" ("long tonnes"). 

To keep things simple, I'll convert everything to "billions of U.S. (short) tons of CO2 per year."  (A Metric Tonne = 1,000 kilograms or 2,200 U.S. pounds.  A standard U.S. ton is called a "short ton" and equals 2,000 pounds.)  I have the legal right to do this since I went to school before the United States went on any metric binges. ]

(1) NOAA: The world's total accumulating Global Warming CO2 emissions

The balance sheet "educational cartoon" at the right is copied from the U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) "Carbon Tracker" web site and shows the approximate situation for atmospheric carbon (not CO2) in units of 10¹⁵ grams of carbon per year.  It illustrates an excess of about 4.4 billion tons of additional carbon accumulating in the atmosphere every year. 

To convert carbon grams to CO2 grams multiply by 3.7. (The atomic weight of carbon is 12, oxygen is 16, so CO2 is 12 + 16 + 16 = 44.  This makes CO2 44/12 or 3.7 times as heavy as a lone carbon.)  In this case, the table is saying about 16 billion tons of additional CO2 is accumulating in the atmosphere every year.  December, 2007, table.  For current accurate data see: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/carbontracker/overview.html 

Note that NOAA's atmospheric CO2 account is in GRAMS of CARBON, not CO2, so multiply by 44/12 or 3.7 to get the equivalent CO2 weight.  

Also, 1x10¹⁵ Grams Carbon = About 1.1 billion tons C or 4.07 billion tons CO2

A second source, the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA), says an excess of 3.2 billion metric tons or 3.5 billion short (U.S.) tons.  It is less clear that they are talking about just the carbon component that is accumulating each year (it's above their figure 2 on their web page):  http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggccebro/chapter1.html

CONVERTING NOAA's confusing   10¹⁵ GRAMS of CARBON   to   BILLION TONS of CO2:   (The promised carbon-to-CO2 conversions)

Biosphere (Land Plants):       -2*3.7*1.1 Billion tons = 8.2 billion tons of CO2 Removed from Atmosphere every year

Oceans:                                -3*3.7*1.1 Billion tons = 12.2 billion tons of CO2 Removed from Atmosphere every year

                                                                        Total: = 20.4 billion tons of CO2 Removed from Atmosphere every year

Fossil Fuel Burning:              8*3.7*1.1 Billion tons = 32.6 billion tons of CO2 Added to Atmosphere every year

Deforestation:                        1*3.7*1.1 Billion tons = 4.1  billion tons of CO2 Added to Atmosphere every year

                                                                         Total: = 36.7 billion tons of CO2 Added to Atmosphere every year

  Net CO2 Total:   36.7 billion tons - 20.4 billion tons = 16.3 billion tons of additional CO2 accumulating in the world's atmosphere every year.

(2) CARMA: 138,000 Power Plant Units Producing Most of Planet Earth's Accumulating CO₂. 

There are 138,000 power plant generating units in the world.  Some are small Chinese diesel units for isolated villages.  Perhaps 60,000 have boilers, and as such, are candidates for conversion to Coal Yard Nukes even if they happen to run on natural gas or oil instead of coal.  The bigger they are, the more likely they are candidates.  The IPCC has identified the 5,000 worst offenders and they are all in the 'convertible' category.

Note Well: Natural gas produces 2/3 as much CO2 per kWh as coal, oil as much CO2 as coal, so don't regard either natural gas or oil power plants as being anything close to "naturally clean." Data Source:  http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/FTPROOT/environment/co2emiss00.pdf  The DOE-EIA web page (Table 4) saying 1.3 pounds of CO2 per kiloWatt hour (kWh) is made by natural gas-burning power plants.  Coal makes about 2.0 pounds of CO2 per kWh.

     Data from CARMA ( www.CARMA.org )

CARMA stated in December, 2007, that world annual electricity consumption was 16.76*10¹⁵ Watt hours causing 11.0 billion tons of CO2 to be produced. 

CARMA is the current source of my data for CO2 from power plants.  I'm confident the data they have gathered is of the same quality as NOAA. 

CARMA states some emission numbers might reflect data as old as the year 2000 and that there may be some missing data. 

Like the power plant CO2 data I developed in the past for this web site and have now removed from use, CARMA's data probably understates today's CO2 emission levels by some small amount.

CARMA makes some thoughtful projections for future electricity growth that, from a CO2 standpoint, can only be viewed with grave concern.  Please visit their web site.

End of "End Of Global Warming" Presentation

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